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Fighting Uncertainty with Uncertainty: Time Value of Knowledge and the Net Present Value (NPV) of Knowledge Machines. (arXiv:1908.03233v1 [q-fin.GN])

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We formulate one methodology to put a value or price on knowledge, using well accepted techniques from finance. We then apply this valuation to the decision problem of selecting papers for publication from an overall pool of submissions. Our initial analysis shows that one of the better solutions, we can accomplish with regards to the creation and dissemination of knowledge, might be described by the prescription, "Don't Simply Optimize, Also Randomize; best described by the term - Randoptimization". We specifically show that the best decision we can make, with regards to the selection of articles by journals, requires us to formulate a cutoff point, or, a region of optimal performance and randomly select from within that region of better results. The policy implication (for all fields) is to randomly select papers, based on publication limitations (journal space, reviewer load etc.) from an overall pool of submissions, that have a single shred of knowledge (or one unique idea) and have the editors and reviewers coach the authors to ensure a better final outcome.


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