We examine the distributional effects of the introduction of Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing schemes where the price per kWh of electricity usage depends on the time of consumption. These pricing schemes are enabled by smart meters, which can regularly (i.e. half-hourly) record consumption. Using causal trees, and an aggregation of causal tree estimates known as a causal forest (Athey & Imbens 2016, Wager & Athey 2017), we consider the association between the effect of TOU pricing schemes on household electricity demand and a range of variables that are observable before the introduction of the new pricing schemes. Causal trees provide an interpretable description of heterogeneity, while causal forests can be used to obtain individual-specific estimates of treatment effects.
read more...↧