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The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties. (arXiv:1610.00274v1 [q-fin.EC])

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We analyze global export data within the Economic Complexity framework. We couple the new economic dimension Complexity, which captures how sophisticated products are, with an index called logPRODY, a weighted average of the Gross Domestic Products per capita of a product's exporters. Products' aggregate motion is treated as a 2-dimensional dynamical system in the Complexity-logPRODY plane (CLP). We assign an average value of competition on the markets to points of the CLP, using the Herfindahl index. The motion of the products on the CLP consists in a fast movement away from zones where the competition is low, towards what we call the asymptotic zone, where competition is maximum. logPRODY of products in this area of maximum competition depends on their Complexity value. Since logPRODY is a proxy for the underlying set of countries that export a given product, displacements on the plane correspond to shifts in the export market. The observed dynamics can be modeled with an equation linking average speed to competition. The asymptotic logPRODY value corresponds to a market configuration that maximizes competition. We characterize it and call it asymptotic market; we find that its shape depends on the Complexity value of the product.


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